Tehran: The longer Israel’s attack on Iran continues, the greater the speculation about the potential overthrow of the government in Tehran. Historically, however, regime change in the region has resulted in disastrous consequences.
According to Deutsche Welle, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly stated on US broadcaster Fox News that regime change in Iran “could certainly be the result” of Israel’s operation, given the perceived weakness of the Tehran government. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has sent mixed messages. On his social network, Truth Social, he claimed awareness of the Supreme Leader’s hiding place but clarified that there are no immediate plans to target him.
The concept of foreign-imposed regime change remains controversial and problematic. Eckart Woertz, head of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg, cautions against the feasibility of externally prompted regime change, noting the complexities and uncertainties involved. Such actions often viol
ate state sovereignty under international law and can lead to power vacuums, violence, and instability, with newly installed governments struggling to manage the existing crises.
Historical precedents like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya illustrate the severe repercussions of attempted regime changes. In Afghanistan, the US-led intervention initially succeeded in displacing the Taliban post-9/11, but disagreements among allies and persistent security challenges led to a prolonged conflict. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 marked a reversal of two decades of progress, leaving Afghanistan isolated and impoverished.
In Iraq, the US decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2003, based on unfounded claims of weapons of mass destruction, resulted in a chaotic post-invasion scenario. Sectarian tensions escalated into near-civil war conditions, and the transitional government faced criticism for mismanagement. Although Iraq’s situation has improved over time, the country remains in a state of transition.
Libya’s
experience post-Arab Spring further exemplifies the pitfalls of regime change. NATO’s intervention against Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 led to his death but failed to establish a stable government. The ensuing conflict among rival militias has left the country fragmented, with ongoing human rights concerns.
Eckart Woertz points out the challenges of achieving regime change in Iran, highlighting the absence of a strong internal rebel movement capable of toppling the current regime. He underscores that successful regime changes, like that in Germany after World War II, required ground invasions and local support, conditions not present in Iran’s current context. Aerial bombardment alone, he argues, is unlikely to effect regime change in Iran.